While viewing the new Vonage UK home page (see next post), I came across a very interesting Newsweek article in their Press section. I will just refer you to the
Vonage site, as they obviously have worked out all the copyright issues, however there are some interesting points made which bear watching.
We are on the verge of a major revolution, being brought about by the maturing of the Internet. As this article points out, the fact that IP protocol can be used for voice transmission is only the tip of the iceberg. Think TV, digital media and almost any entertainment or communications related services that come to mind. These industries are changing, and it is happening rapidly.
The big stress on the system is that not everyone is ready for it. Technology keeps moving forward, yet many of our respected and historical suppliers can’t seem to grapple with it. Instead, they are often too concerned about protecting their turf to be able to see what is really happening around them.
This kind of head-in-the-sand attitude is not really new. Many years ago, I was working for a very high roller at the old Southern Bell. (Now I really am showing my age!) He was a smart man and went on to hold notable positions at AT&T and in the international phone marketplace. But he was dead wrong when he told me that the future of the telephone company lay in PBX’s, not in the computers and data communications systems I was touting. He urged me to focus on this reality in planning my career, because my opportunities would be really limited within the Bell System otherwise!
I'm sure he doesn't even remember that remark, and he must have changed his mind somewhere down the line, because the reality was just the opposite. But he was short-sighted, and this kind of thinking is akin to today's view, which sometimes seems to be that these technologies may simply go away. They won't, and to ignore the impact and momentum of technological advance will always be short-sighted.
We can’t help but wonder about the rush to add fibre to the home. Now we're all for a big pipe to provide enhanced services, but in reality is this the best solution? Have all the options really been considered? Especially those provided by recent advances in wireless IP. Although there are still some technical issues yet to be solved, VoIP roaming is not far away. We take our Vonage adapter everywhere, and that works great, but here I am referring to being able to have your VoIP number on a handset that communicates via WiFi or a similar protocol. As a matter of fact, if you want to use one of the “SoftPhone” options offered by Vonage and others, VoIP calling over a wireless hotspot using your PC or even a PDA is possible now. (See the article about how to set this up at
Engadget.)
The big mobile companies, especially the GSM suppliers in Europe and the UK, spent gazillions of dollars, pounds and euros on buying the spectrum and licensing the new 3G systems. But now there is a real question as to if it will be obsolete by the time it gets off the ground, because WiFi (your standard run of the mill wireless internet connection) is becoming more ubiquitous, and it's big brother, WiMax (that's 30Mbps within a 30km radius) is not that far away. Now it seems the phone giants are finally beginning to take this seriously. Although they are all still talking about laying fibre to every home, we wonder if that may not be just to protect their other interests in this fight to ward off the inevitable.
I had an interesting chat with a VC a few days ago who lent some additional perspective on this. We observed that most of the phone giants own lots of cell towers where wireless broadcast points could easily be added to provide a very broad area with wireless broadband far faster than most will be willing to do on fibre. His point was that in doing so, they begin to cut the legs off their own cellular business. Another point, of course, is that of HDTV and other entertainment services - there is a perception that if you own that cable or fibre right to the house (known as the "last mile" in the industry), you own the client.
But in reality, all this seems like just another fight against the natural progression of technology. If these companies don't do it, someone else will - that's how Vonage and the other VoIP players got started. The Telco’s need to get with the times and start looking into the future. What really is the impact of IP on the services they strive to provide? They need to figure this one out soon, or someone else will do it for them.
